New Census data show improvements in historic expansion
Posted on 09/15/20 by Michael Shields (he/him) in Work & Wages
Pandemic and recession setting back progress since Great Recession
Everyone deserves to be able to cover the basics, to build a life for themselves and their loved ones, regardless of race, gender or geography. New data released by the Census Bureau today show that this can’t be accomplished by economic growth alone.
Today’s data release captures the final chapter of the longest economic expansion in history, brought to an abrupt end by COVID-19 this spring. Despite some progress, the new data show that many Americans still struggled in poverty, and enormous disparities based on race persisted. Now the pandemic and recession have set back years of progress.
In a normal year, the Current Population Survey (CPS) national income and poverty estimates and data from the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) provide an in-depth look at Americans’ wellbeing. But COVID-19 and the recession it caused have disrupted lives in ways not captured by this year’s data, which cover 2019. To address that shortcoming, we report out key highlights from the CPS and SPM release, then include some more recent findings from the Household Pulse Survey.
The data underscore the urgent need for federal leaders to direct aid to displaced workers and state and local governments -- starting by restoring the $600-per-week federal supplement to state unemployment insurance. Those payments provide a lifeline to displaced workers and prevent further job loss caused by reduced consumer spending. The federal government should provide that support as long as it’s needed. Federal leaders should direct another round of stimulus to state and local governments to prevent cuts to needed services which will otherwise cause more layoffs and prolong the recession.
The pandemic also caused the Census Bureau to suspend the in-person portion of its survey gathering in March, the month when most data for this release are gathered. This disproportionately reduced responses from low-income Americans so that earnings appear higher and the number of Americans in poverty to appear smaller than they would if people from all walks of life were counted in proportion to their share. Thus the Census Bureau released today’s numbers with a dose of caution.
Here are discrepancies:
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Median household income for the nation was reported at $68,703 for 2019. After adjusting for nonresponse bias, the Census Bureau estimates that real median household income in 2019 was 2.8 percent lower at $66,790. Both figures reflect an increase over 2018 (and a larger increase than earnings), which likely captures an increase in the share of people working.
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The nation’s poverty rate was reported at 10.5%, but the Census Bureau’s correction estimates the figure at 11.1%: an undercount of 2 million Americans. Last year’s 11.8% figure (from 2018) was the first year the poverty rate was reduced to pre-Great Recession level. The pandemic recession threatens to reverse that trend.
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Today’s release included measures from separate surveys on the number of uninsured Americans. The CPS estimated that the number Americans lacking health coverage decreased by 1.4 million since 2018. The American Community Survey reported an increase of 1.1 million. Estimates of the number of uninsured Americans ranged from 26.1 million to 29.6 million.
These factors improved:
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Across the U.S. earnings for people working full-time reportedly grew by 1.4% over 2018 to $41,537 in 2019. That growth rate was slower than the previous year's rate of 3.4%. Figures account for inflation.
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The overall poverty rate for women fell to 11.5% from 12.9% in 2018.
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Poverty rates for people in female-headed families fell to the lowest rate on record for the group (24.3%), lifting 565,000 children out of poverty since 2018. Early data on child hunger reported below indicate that COVID-19 has set back that progress. It is not yet known by how much.
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Income rose for Americans of all races since 2018. Black Americans experienced household earnings increases of 7.9%, Hispanic Americans 7.1%, Asian Americans 10.6% and white non-Hispanic Americans 5.7% These translated into gains ranging from $3,300 for Black households to $9,400 for Asian American households.
Income gaps have widened as the wealthiest have captured a growing share, and major racial disparities persist.
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Inequality rose: Households in the top 5% nationally captured 6.5 times the income of those in the middle. The top 5% averaged more than $451,000 in 2019, while those in the middle averaged just under $69,000, and the poorest 20% averaged a little more than $15,000. The top 5% captured 23% of all income in 2019.
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34 million Americans still live in poverty, including 10.5 million children.
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Employers pay women 82 cents for each $1 they pay men, unchanged since 2018.
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Despite record lows, poverty rates remained unacceptably high for people in households headed by Black (28.7%) and Hispanic (31.1%) women.
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Poverty rates for Black (18.8%) and Hispanic Americans (15.7%) were more than double the rate for white non-Hispanic individuals (7.3%). Nearly 8.1 million Black Americans, over 9.5 million Hispanic Americans and 14.2 white non-Hispanic Americans were in poverty last year.
These losses and lingering inequities reflect policy choices that have benefitted the wealthy few and corporations at the expense of most Americans, enabling those at the top to capture more than their share of the wealth and more than their counterparts did in the past. The result was that it took years to recover lost ground in the longest expansion in history. Now that expansion is over.
More recent figures from the Household Pulse survey cover adults asked about their households between August 19 and August 31. These data show:
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Nationally, a majority of people (56.1%) had at least some difficulty covering usual household expenditures.
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Both Black (71.3%) and Latinx (71.7%) residents were 23 percentage points more likely to have difficulty than white residents (48.4%) and reported higher levels of difficulty.
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Black and Latinx residents were twice as likely as white residents to report they had a “very difficult” time paying for basics.
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An estimated 14.1% of adults in households with children reported not having enough to eat sometimes or often in the prior week. This figure rose 1.9 points (15.5%) from before COVID-19.
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Americans who had enough to eat but could not access or afford the food they wanted to eat rose by a third.
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Nearly 68 million Americans, 35% of those needing treatment for a medical condition, experienced delays in receiving treatment due to the pandemic. For SNAP recipients, that figure was 46.7%.
The Census Bureau will release additional data on poverty and income in the states on September 17.