Months after first thought, Ohio regained jobs lost after May 2000

The takeaway: Record jobs posted January bring Ohioans cause to celebrate, but lackluster growth last year shows policymakers need to lean in on supporting Ohio working people. Ohio fully restored the jobs lost to COVID-19 in May 2023 as initially reported, but took until January 2024 to get back the jobs lost in the 2001 recession, months after first thought. New data show Ohio lost jobs in four of the 12 months last year. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% as an estimated 1,000 new Ohioans joined the workforce to look for or take a job, but 2,000 fewer were working.

The benchmark: Data released today by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) show that Ohio recovered jobs lost after May 2000 to achieve a record number of jobs later than originally thought, not last July or August, but in January of this year. The data come from an annual benchmark revision to the Current Employment Statistics, a survey of businesses released each month to track the job market. Ohio reached 5,643,000 jobs in January, besting the previous record by 7,300. The achievement lifts Ohio out of a decades-long jobs deficit following the 2001 recession, which until now Ohio had never fully recovered from.

“Today’s benchmark underscores the challenge of reporting history in real time,” said Policy Matters Ohio economist, Michael Shields. “But reaching this milestone a few months later than initially thought doesn’t take away from its historic importance. A record jobs level is a cause to celebrate. It has been more than 23 years coming.”

Today’s data separately confirm that Ohio recovered the jobs lost to COVID-19 in May 2023 as originally reported. That was 39 months after COVID began shuttering workplaces in March 2020 and 37 months after recovery began that May.

The benchmark also shows that, compared with original estimates, the jobs recovery was stronger in 2022 — when public supports such as emergency SNAP benefits and enhanced Medicaid eligibility were still in effect — and weaker in 2023 — when Congress and state policymakers were stripping away those supports. (More robust policies including enhanced unemployment benefits that kept families out of crisis and prevented a deeper recession had already ended.) At the same time, inflation was high and the Federal Reserve was boosting interest rates to slow the economy. Inflation reached a 40-year peak* in June 2022 at 9%. Though corporate price gouging was a key driver, the Fed’s response, to ramp up interest rates beginning in spring of 2022, was designed to slow hiring and reduce workers’ ability to demand wage increases.

“These data confirm what we thought: Ohio has recovered from the deepest recession in nearly a century in less than half the time it took us to regain jobs lost in the Great Recession,” said Shields. “The difference is that in the Great Recession, policymakers cut spending and compounded the problem. The COVID recovery is a win for the rapid deployment of resources to those who needed them most. The fact that recovery was strongest when those supports were in place shows how critical they were.”

The January jobs numbers: Seasonally adjusted data also released today by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) show that Ohio added 7,000 jobs over the month to reach the 5,643,000 peak.

The household survey: The separate household survey showed Ohio’s unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 points to 3.7% in January. One thousand Ohioans joined the workforce to accept or seek a job, but the number who held jobs fell by 1,000, increasing the number of unemployed Ohioans by 2,000 to 212,000 people. Compared with a year ago, 31,000 more Ohioans were working age, and the workforce participation rate rose 0.2 points to 61.8%.

It’s worth taking a look back on the household survey in light of the new data from the benchmark. In 2023, the household survey found a reduction in the number of Ohioans with jobs in four months (September through December), but in three of those months, the business survey didn’t agree, finding growth instead. The business survey is usually considered more reliable because it has a larger sample size, but the household survey can pick up trends faster. From the benchmark, we can see that the household survey didn’t always get it right down to the month, but it signaled possible weakness in a job market that we now know lost jobs in four months out of the year.

“Today's report is a mixed bag,” said Shields. “Recovering the jobs Ohio lost decades ago at last is a big milestone still very much worth celebrating. But we also learned that the job recovery lost steam in 2023 as state policymakers pulled more supports out from under working people and the Fed sought to slow a job market that we now know was already faltering. The lesson for policymakers should be to shore up — not weaken — supports for working people, including by sustaining a robust unemployment benefits system for times of need; investing deeply in the childcare infrastructure parents need to go to work; and supporting workers’ efforts to advocate for better jobs at better wages, including passing a $15 minimum wage that covers all workers.”

*We link to this fussy graph, just in case you want to check out the numbers yourself. To get to the nitty gritty, click “Edit Graph” and choose “Percent Change from a Year Ago” for your units. If you’re as enthralled as we are, bookmark FRED for great economics data and welcome: you’re officially a data wonk like us!

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