Leisure and hospitality, state and local government jobs shortfall preventing full recovery

The takeaway: Ohio added jobs last month to attain a full private sector recovery of jobs lost to COVID-19. Gains in better-paying sectors outweighed a lingering 20,800 jobs shortfall in leisure and hospitality to attain the private sector recovery. Missing public sector jobs are now the only thing standing in the way of full recovery. Unemployment dipped to 3.8% as 17,000 Ohioans returned to the workforce and 22,000 job seekers found work. March inflation slowed a full point from February to 5.0%.

The numbers: Seasonally adjusted data released today by the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) show that Ohio employers restored 10,600 jobs over the month on top of an upwardly revised February report, landing Ohio at 5,589,700 total jobs for March.

For the first time since COVID-19 forced Ohioans home from work in the public health emergency, the private sector has fully recovered all its jobs as compared with February 2020, with 4,819,700 jobs (up 1,100 jobs). Ohio has now restored 97.2% of the 881,600 jobs lost to COVID-19, leaving 24,100 to go. A shortfall of 27,000 state and local public jobs is the only thing that now stands in the way of full jobs recovery.

“This rapid recovery stands in stark contrast to the near-decade long slog to restore jobs after the Great Recession when Congressional Republicans used a debt limit stand-off to choke off critically needed government stimulus,” said Policy Matters Ohio Senior Researcher Michael Shields. “This time, Congress deployed massive aid to people, state and local governments, and businesses, driving recovery from the deepest job losses in history in less than half the time. Now state and local government officials need to tap the last of their ARPA dollars and use the state budget now being debated in the General Assembly to boost pay and restore those jobs still missing on their watch.”

The details: Led by goods producers, private sector jobs exceeded pre-COVID levels for the first time in March, with 4,819,700 jobs. With 4,200 new manufacturing jobs outweighing losses in other goods producing jobs, goods producers added 2,300 jobs in the month to 938,100, up 2,000 jobs from February 2020. Service sector jobs closed in on a full recovery, with 900 jobs left to go to fully restore COVID losses. Leisure and hospitality jobs remain 20,800 jobs below pre-COVID levels as other industries in the sector nearly make up for the loss. With the private sector now recovered, only public sector job losses stand in the way of full jobs recovery, where state government jobs remain at an 8,200 jobs shortfall and local government jobs are missing 18,800 — the bulk of them teaching jobs.

“This is a story about pay,” said Shields. “Public officials need to boost pay to re-hire the teachers and other critical public servants our families and communities rely on. And in the private sector, it’s leisure and hospitality jobs — among the state’s lowest paid, where tipped work and erratic schedules predominate — that employers are failing to rehire. The solution here is clear: to fully recover the number of jobs, it’s time to get serious about improving job quality.

The household survey: According to the separate household survey, 22,000 Ohioans found work in March, reducing the number of unemployed Ohioans by 6,000 and drawing 17,000 Ohioans into the workforce. Improvements in all three benchmarks built on and exceeded improvements the previous month. Ohio’s unemployment rate fell 0.1 points to 3.8%. The nation’s unemployment rate fell 0.1 points to 3.5%.

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